Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ce7…3150 sports 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,380 (-12%) realized −$9,253 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%176W / 271L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$803est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$1,388
14 days−$2,345
30 days−$11,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$2,302
other 33% −$6,446
world 3% −$2,280
crypto 2% −$518
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -11.3% -19.7% 39% 39% -4.5%
≤30d 446 -7.1% -16.0% 39% 39% -24.3%
≤90d 447 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 39% -24.3%
all 447 -7.1% -15.9% 39% 39% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 39% -24.3%
10% -24.0% 39% -31.6%
15% -31.3% 38% -38.2%
20% -38.0% 36% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$140 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$5,123
Realized−$9,253
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses176 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$803
Open positions4
Markets (closed)447 / 456
History coverage31d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2,200 $2,182 −$18 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2,000 $1,985 −$15 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $550 $545 −$5 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53¢ 44¢ $500 $410 −$90 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $245 −$240 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $935 −$920 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $912 +$695 +76%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $517 −$517 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $759 +$471 +62%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 19 $15 +$25 +165%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $29 +$24 +83%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $341 −$341 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $12 +$21 +180%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $355 +$271 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $680 +$660 +97%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $204 +$468 +229%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,522 +$999 +40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 18 $98 +$63 +64%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,424 +$1,909 +134%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Sonego (+1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $503 −$503 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $405 +$285 +70%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $43 +$62 +146%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$52 +114%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Set Handicap: Giron (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,518 +$982 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $11 +$21 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $2,225 52m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $557 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 53m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $245 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $406 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $23 6h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 37¢ $46 13h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 54¢ $29 14h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 35¢ $35 17h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 37¢ $15 18h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $50 20h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 43¢ $65 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $306 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $528 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $912 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $759 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $230 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $264 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $12 33h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 47¢ $32 36h
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Rybakina 59¢ $18 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $223 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $254 42h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Lys (+1.5) BUY Lys 41¢ $19 44h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 13¢ $51 44h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 30¢ $204 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $457 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $355 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $341 44h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 45¢ $8 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,122.51 · official $5,647.51 · 1011 history records