Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ce5…241f other 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$22
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 25% −$19
politics 8% −$6
crypto 6% −$6
culture 6% −$5
economics 5% −$3
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage127d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $379 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $663 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $284 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $378 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $292 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $134 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $225 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $234 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $271 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 58m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 3h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 3h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 5h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 6h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 21h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 25h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 28h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 29h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $39 32h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $11 34h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 35h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $51 40h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 43h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 43h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 44h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 47h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1313 history records