Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8ce1…1fd1
crypto · 53 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Net worth$16
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses50 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage84d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 7? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? Jun 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 15? May 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on April 11? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on April 8? Apr 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 5? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 19°C or below on April 4? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% +$3
other 14% −$1
weather 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $17 10d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $23 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 18d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $8 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $2 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? SELL No $1 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY No $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -4.3% -13.5% 93% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 52 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 2% -9.3%
all 52 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.78 · official $15.78 (match) · 161 history records