trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Yes | 28¢ | 24¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-11%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) | Curaçao | 39¢ | 56¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+42%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | No | 60¢ | 60¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+1%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 58¢ | 60¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | Over | 55¢ | 38¢ | $2 | $2 | −$1 (-30%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | 9z | 3¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $98 | $0 | -0% |
| Spread: Germany (-5.5) | Jun 14 | $18 | $0 | +3% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $23 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $24 | −$1 | -3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | Jun 14 | $23 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner | Jun 14 | $4 | +$1 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 6% | -10.4% |
| ≤30d | 16 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 6% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 6% | -10.4% |
| all | 16 | -1.1% | -10.5% | 25% | 6% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -10.5% | 6% | -10.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -19.1% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -26.9% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -34.0% | 0% | -34.0% |