Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8cdf…03de crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$4
other 38% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.2% -8.5% 36% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 11 +1.2% -8.5% 36% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +1.2% -8.5% 36% 0% -8.7%
all 11 +1.2% -8.5% 36% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×9.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.37 per $1 lost it wins $5.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 99¢ 84¢ $53 $46 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $40 +$4 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $49 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $45 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.64 · official $45.64 (match) · 24 history records