Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8cdf…365b sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized −$115 · open +$125
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days+$100
14 days+$100
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$18
other 38% +$161
crypto 3% +$5
world 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +23.1% +11.4% 73% 73% +19.6%
≤30d 15 +23.1% +11.4% 73% 73% +19.6%
≤90d 25 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 48% -8.5%
all 25 -9.8% -18.4% 48% 48% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 48% -8.5%
10% -26.2% 40% -17.3%
15% -33.3% 32% -25.2%
20% -39.9% 24% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,154
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage37d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 79¢ 84¢ $629 $673 +$44 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $400 $481 +$81 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$15 -29%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $48 +$32 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $7 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$4 +27%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 20 $2 −$1 -59%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 20 $4 $0 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $4 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 20 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $12 −$1 -6%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $34 −$16 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $604 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $29 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 33¢ $36 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $51 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 47h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $28 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $48 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL Bebop 49¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 64¢ $19 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Bebop 36¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $15 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $9 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 31d
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL San Francisco Giants 10¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,153.93 · official $1,153.99 (match) · 64 history records