Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cdd…a9a4 sports 18 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$302 (-20%) realized −$302 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$177
sports 35% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -45.8% -51.0% 7% 7% -34.5%
≤30d 18 -54.1% -58.5% 6% 6% -36.3%
≤90d 18 -54.1% -58.5% 6% 6% -36.3%
all 18 -54.1% -58.5% 6% 6% -36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 6% -36.3%
10% -62.4% 6% -42.4%
15% -66.1% 6% -48.0%
20% -69.4% 0% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$22 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $37 −$22 -61%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $97 −$60 -62%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $205 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $135 −$39 -29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 +$44 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $419 −$101 -24%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$6 -6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 −$48 -80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $73 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $184 −$19 -10%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 −$19 -90%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $14 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $14 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $37 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Legacy 15¢ $36 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $97 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $97 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $34 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $136 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $92 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $92 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $101 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $101 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $97 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $96 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $11 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $18 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $19 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $68 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $71 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $71 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $73 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records