Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8cda…2de5 sports 69 markets active 19h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,560 (+9%) realized +$17,226 · open +$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%37W / 30L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$2,884per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$636est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,969
7 days−$447
14 days−$1,428
30 days−$3,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$14,628
world 11% −$210
other 5% +$3,287
politics 4% −$445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.4% -1.0% 60% 40% -11.7%
≤30d 15 -17.4% -25.3% 47% 33% -21.1%
≤90d 55 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 51% -2.2%
all 67 +0.2% -9.3% 55% 51% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 51% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 48% -11.2%
15% -25.9% 48% -19.8%
20% -33.2% 40% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$4,859) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,996 vs −$1,897 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized+$17,226
Unrealized+$334
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses37 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$636
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage164d
Avg bet$2,884
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $376 $687 +$311 (+83%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $47 $70 +$22 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $2,001 −$1,969 -98%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 13 $4,690 +$63 +1%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $190 +$108 +57%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Darya Velikova vs Iva Ivanovic Jun 11 $174 −$174 -100%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $330 +$625 +189%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
ITF Varnamo: Patrik Munkhammar vs Max Dahlin Jun 10 $2,335 −$480 -21%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $1,256 +$1,011 +80%
ITF Varnamo: William Rejchtman Vinciguerra vs Filip Gustafsson Jun 10 $352 +$290 +82%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 10 $6,867 +$281 +4%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $960 −$949 -99%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 08 $722 −$722 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 08 $2,474 +$1,111 +45%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 07 $421 −$420 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Calvin Hemery Jun 01 $1,746 −$1,728 -99%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Apr 08 $5,584 −$306 -6%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 08 $2,413 −$139 -6%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 07 $487 +$213 +44%
Miyazaki: Harry Wendelken vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Apr 04 $18 +$27 +144%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $11,694 +$1,720 +15%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Adam Wal Apr 01 $2,922 +$2,346 +80%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rinky Hijik Apr 01 $3,549 −$3,549 -100%
Sao Leopoldo: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Mar 31 $10,559 +$325 +3%
Credit One Charleston Open: Shuai Zhang vs Yulia Starodubtseva Mar 31 $9 +$8 +85%
Sao Leopoldo: Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Juan Bautista Torres Mar 31 $2,277 +$1,105 +48%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Colton Smith vs Thiago Agustin Tira Mar 31 $2,759 +$1,680 +61%
Split: Matej Dodig vs Mili Poljicak Mar 29 $187 −$187 -100%
Split: Mili Poljicak vs Kimmer Coppejans Mar 29 $4,859 −$4,859 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jone Mar 29 $9,250 −$9,250 -100%
Barcelona vs. KK Crvena Zvezda Mar 28 $8,812 +$5,177 +59%
Split: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Alexander Vasilev Mar 27 $4,026 +$5,337 +133%
Morelia: James Duckworth vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mar 26 $1,017 +$1,681 +165%
Sao Paulo: Tomas Barrios vs Thiago Monteiro Mar 26 $3,020 +$2,952 +98%
Sao Paulo: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Eduardo Ribeiro Mar 26 $203 −$203 -100%
Dubrovnik: Petra Marcinko vs Teodora Kostovic Mar 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Bucaramanga: Maxime Janvier vs Nicolas Villalon Mar 26 $5,195 −$5,195 -100%
Bucaramanga: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Garrett Johns Mar 25 $196 +$71 +36%
Alicante: Lloyd Harris vs Marco Cecchinato Mar 25 $7,429 +$7,574 +102%
Alicante: Svyatoslav Gulin vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 24 $7,403 +$1,216 +16%
Alicante: Samuele Pieri vs Jesper de Jong Mar 24 $2,204 +$1,662 +75%
Naples: Francesco Forti vs Vit Kopriva Mar 24 $603 −$603 -100%
Split: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Nerman Fatic Mar 24 $430 −$430 -100%
Alicante: Ivan Gakhov vs Lloyd Harris Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Split: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Daniel Michalski Mar 24 $9,034 −$5,645 -62%
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? Mar 24 $4,365 +$3,081 +71%
Alicante: Edas Butvilas vs Pol Martin Tiffon Mar 23 $3,056 −$2,277 -74%
Split: Andrej Nedic vs Jelle Sels Mar 23 $2,534 +$1,425 +56%
Naples: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Vitaliy Sachko Mar 23 $4,418 +$3,471 +79%
Miami Open: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Etcheverry Mar 23 $5,465 −$5,465 -100%
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Arthur Gea Mar 22 $8,051 +$7,390 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 45¢ $457 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 46¢ $22 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 45¢ $1 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 45¢ $457 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 45¢ $457 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 45¢ $406 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 45¢ $51 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 42¢ $17 18h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 41¢ $25 21h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 39¢ $4 22h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 39¢ $4 22h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 39¢ $4 22h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 39¢ $45 22h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Ignacio Parisca 39¢ $49 22h
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $225 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $146 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $146 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $146 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $219 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $292 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $292 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $292 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $292 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $292 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 74¢ $1,893 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $481 3d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $304 5d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1,500 5d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY No 74¢ $471 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.48 · official $756.58 (match) · 1321 history records