Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8C 0x8cd8…09f4 politics 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% $0
other 27% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage83d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $85 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $86 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $86 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $86 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $86 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 26h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 18d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $85 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $85 20d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $85 20d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $85 23d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $85 24d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 28d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 28d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 34d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $85 39d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $85 39d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $86 58d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $86 59d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 63d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $86 64d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $86 65d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $86 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $86 67d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 68d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 69d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 72d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 72d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $86 76d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $86 77d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 82d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records