Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8cd4…e609 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 2 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 13 -15.6% -23.6% 77% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 38% -9.2%
10% -30.9% 8% -17.9%
15% -37.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -43.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$1,001
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage201d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $999 +$2 +0%
Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5) Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? Feb 26 $1 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder Jan 21 $1 $0 +12%
Suns vs. Thunder Dec 31 $1 $0 +14%
Giants vs. Patriots Dec 10 $1 $0 +30%
Bucks vs. Wizards Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Dec 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 01 $502 +$6 +1%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments (BO3) Dec 01 $1 $0 +15%
Raiders vs. Chargers Dec 01 $1 $0 +20%
Rockets vs. Jazz Dec 01 $503 +$1 +0%
Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Fresno State Bulldogs Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $998 1h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 97¢ $1 1h
Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 98¢ $1 113d
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-01-28? BUY No 98¢ $1 149d
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 89¢ $1 170d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $1 191d
Bucks vs. Wizards BUY Bucks 80¢ $1 200d
Giants vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 77¢ $1 200d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 82¢ $1 200d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 99¢ $501 200d
Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Fresno State Bulldogs BUY Fresno State Bulldogs 86¢ $1 200d
Rockets vs. Jazz BUY Rockets 100¢ $503 200d
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments (BO3) BUY Xtreme Gaming 87¢ $1 201d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 90¢ $1 201d
Raiders vs. Chargers BUY Chargers 83¢ $1 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.41 · official $1,001.41 (match) · 24 history records