Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8cd2…648c sports 731 markets active 6h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,610 (+6%) realized +$3,477 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%343W / 385L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$944est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$672
7 days+$1,613
14 days+$2,705
30 days+$3,461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$2,606
other 2% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +0.0% -9.5% 48% 48% +0.4%
≤30d 385 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 50% -1.5%
≤90d 727 -2.8% -12.1% 47% 47% -5.5%
all 728 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 47% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 47% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 47% -14.5%
15% -28.2% 46% -22.8%
20% -35.2% 45% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$70 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$3,477
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses343 / 385
Est. fees paid−$944
Open positions3
Markets (closed)728 / 731
History coverage91d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ 100¢ $278 $442 +$163 (+59%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 57¢ 50¢ $259 $230 −$29 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 45¢ 44¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 357 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $237 +$263 +111%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $140 +$110 +79%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$140 +67%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $199 −$53 -27%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $249 +$200 +80%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $278 +$222 +80%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $140 +$110 +79%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $454 −$451 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $136 −$130 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$39 +64%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $112 +$88 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $125 +$125 +100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $81 +$119 +148%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 13 $474 +$278 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$80 +67%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$140 +127%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $59 +$41 +70%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $119 +$91 +76%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $75 +$85 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 +$54 +119%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $296 +$86 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$44 +79%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $129 +$111 +87%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $172 +$328 +191%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $137 −$137 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $283 −$212 -75%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$8 +75%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $103 +$77 +75%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $401 +$259 +64%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$53 +112%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $158 +$76 +48%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $157 +$93 +60%
Game Handicap: EWI (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 11 $103 +$128 +124%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $244 +$166 +68%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $112 +$88 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $27 5h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 56¢ $31 5h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $115 5h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $78 6h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $115 6h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 63¢ $204 6h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $5 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $10 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $8 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $27 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $15 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $70 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 30¢ $8 11h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 39¢ $199 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $24 12h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $87 12h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $25 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $214 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $70 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $80 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $53 14h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $115 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $3 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $22 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 55¢ $10 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 55¢ $45 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 62¢ $20 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 62¢ $6 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOS 62¢ $129 15h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY RED Canids 4¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $697.66 · official $697.66 (match) · 2174 history records