Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8C 0x8cd2…04a0 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,099 (+24%) realized +$1,099 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days+$361
14 days+$361
30 days+$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$991
crypto 33% −$102
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.0% -38.5% 58% 33% +5.0%
≤30d 12 -32.0% -38.5% 58% 33% +5.0%
≤90d 34 +18.4% +7.1% 59% 50% +8.4%
all 34 +18.4% +7.1% 59% 50% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 50% +8.4%
10% -3.1% 35% -2.0%
15% -12.5% 32% -11.4%
20% -21.1% 15% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$35 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage81d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $438 +$37 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $143 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 29 $18 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 29 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Jun 28 $1,132 +$469 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $131 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $126 +$15 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 17? Apr 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $110 −$101 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $736 +$315 +43%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $218 +$30 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $210 +$96 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $140 +$53 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $5 +$53 +1062%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 14 $30 +$65 +217%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $298 +$121 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 12 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $2 +$3 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $8 +$8 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 2h
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? SELL No 48¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $155 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $44 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $7 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records