Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8cd1…ea75 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,692 (+13%) realized +$1,664 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate79%34W / 9L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days+$2,023
30 days+$2,023
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$876
sports 17% +$1,898
world 14% −$133
politics 13% +$284
other 12% +$82
finance 7% +$368
tech 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 90% 20% +25.9%
≤90d 22 -4.2% -13.3% 77% 32% +18.7%
all 43 +2.2% -7.5% 79% 44% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 44% +2.8%
10% -16.3% 21% -7.0%
15% -24.4% 16% -16.0%
20% -31.8% 12% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$228 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized+$1,664
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses34 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage102d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 85¢ 81¢ $145 $138 −$7 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $134 $129 −$5 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2,079 +$1,948 +94%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Jun 12 $1,010 +$18 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $888 +$50 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 12 $385 +$15 +4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 12 $504 +$31 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $141 +$4 +3%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +1%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 17 $349 −$244 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 16 $144 +$56 +39%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $640 +$352 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 10 $228 +$67 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 10 $205 −$205 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $283 +$316 +111%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 30 $85 +$14 +16%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 27 $30 −$26 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 25 $264 +$8 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March? Mar 24 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 20 $35 +$64 +183%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 3AM ET Mar 19 $184 +$6 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 1AM ET Mar 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 9PM ET Mar 19 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 18 $1,426 −$1,398 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 18 $379 +$116 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 4AM ET Mar 18 $736 +$63 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12PM ET Mar 17 $484 +$102 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3AM ET Mar 17 $178 +$22 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2AM ET Mar 17 $204 +$94 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11PM ET Mar 17 $87 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11PM ET Mar 17 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? Mar 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 17 $100 +$172 +172%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March? Mar 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 13? Mar 14 $310 +$19 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13? Mar 14 $255 +$45 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 14 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $60 1h
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $86 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $53 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $53 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $107 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 9d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $1,028 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $938 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $400 9d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $535 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $146 9d
US x China Military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 9d
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? SELL No 77¢ $66 9d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 9d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 12d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $21 12d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 57¢ $263 13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $27 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $238 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $38 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $39 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 14d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $14 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.36 · official $457.36 (match) · 339 history records