Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8cd0…d4e4 crypto 386 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,627 (-8%) realized −$10,617 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%164W / 204L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$14,321
other 1% −$57
world 0% −$78
politics 0% −$13
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.1% -22.3% 50% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 47 -17.2% -25.1% 40% 26% -31.8%
≤90d 368 -16.6% -24.5% 45% 36% -19.8%
all 368 -16.6% -24.5% 45% 36% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 36% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 30% -27.5%
15% -38.4% 22% -34.5%
20% -44.4% 16% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$200 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$10,617
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses164 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)368 / 386
History coverage69d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 41¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $77 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $279 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $47 +$132 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$23 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $94 −$86 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 06 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 06 $513 −$210 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$92 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $202 +$25 +12%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $286 −$273 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $207 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $115 +$124 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $255 −$100 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 06 $12 +$12 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $53 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $121 −$117 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $113 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $105 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $98 −$96 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $72 −$20 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $223 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $31 −$21 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $10 +$28 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 02 $53 −$30 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 02 $618 −$300 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 02 $836 −$300 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $55 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $177 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $122 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $179 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.00 · official $185.00 (match) · 1798 history records