Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8ccf…aa10 crypto 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,304 (-10%) realized −$3,304 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate76%83W / 26L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$997
7 days−$315
14 days−$5,777
30 days−$5,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$594
other 20% −$4,773
sports 19% +$532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -2.9% -12.2% 76% 48% -8.7%
≤30d 102 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 53% -24.5%
≤90d 109 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 53% -21.4%
all 109 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 53% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 53% -21.4%
10% -17.0% 31% -28.9%
15% -25.0% 18% -35.8%
20% -32.4% 10% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$341 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,304
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses83 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)109 / 109
History coverage58d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 109 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $235 +$108 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $845 −$817 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $645 +$350 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $1,178 −$573 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $956 +$82 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $957 +$111 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $101 −$80 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $962 +$102 +11%
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Navarro Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Samsonova vs Siniakova Jun 21 $91 +$58 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $953 +$43 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $852 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $957 +$25 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $951 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $963 +$220 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $1,064 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $940 +$157 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $914 −$302 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $204 −$90 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $301 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $204 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$83 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $235 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $284 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $561 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $645 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $255 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $292 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $416 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $559 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $956 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $957 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $22 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1,064 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $962 41h
Set 1 Winner: Bouzkova vs Navarro BUY Navarro 60¢ $61 42h
Set 2 Winner: Samsonova vs Siniakova SELL Samsonova 100¢ $150 43h
Set 2 Winner: Samsonova vs Siniakova BUY Samsonova 61¢ $63 43h
Set 2 Winner: Samsonova vs Siniakova BUY Samsonova 61¢ $29 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $953 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $118 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records