Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8ccf…a7a3
weather · 266 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$121 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$130 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,625
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses225 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)255 / 266
History coverage604d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 11 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$4
14 days+$69
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $469 $470 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $336 $336 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 4°C on May 17? No 100¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 17? No 100¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $265 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +162%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $148 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,448 +$7 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $944 +$4 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $226 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $170 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $280 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 7? Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 7? Jun 07 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 3? Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3? Jun 03 $814 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $612 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $398 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $713 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,125 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $86 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $237 +$9 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on May 30? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 30? May 31 $728 +$35 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 30? May 31 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 30? May 31 $61 +$7 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 30? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $75 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 48% −$239
crypto 22% −$229
other 12% +$87
politics 11% +$95
finance 4% +$12
world 3% +$137
sports 0% +$11
economics 0% +$3
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 30m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $336 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 99¢ $129 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $469 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $105 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $207 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $148 45h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $166 46h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $44 46h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $83 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $98 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $149 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +2.9% -6.9% 97% 3% -9.6%
≤30d 61 -1.5% -10.9% 89% 5% -10.6%
≤90d 143 -1.1% -10.5% 89% 3% -10.1%
all 255 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,625.10 · official $1,625.11 (match) · 1051 history records