Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:17:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8C 0x8ccb…9458 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 31% +$1
sports 12% $0
weather 7% −$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 8% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +1.3% -8.4% 8% 8% -9.4%
all 33 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $6 +$1 +17%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 25? Mar 25 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 25 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will 'Black Bag' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $16 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $15 $0 +2%
LSU vs. Kentucky Mar 06 $14 +$1 +4%
Georgia vs. South Carolina Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 5? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 04 $14 −$1 -5%
Grambling State vs. Bethune-Cookman Mar 03 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 12h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $30 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $30 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $37 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $37 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $10 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 24d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $6 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $28 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $34 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 8¢ $8 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 7¢ $4 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 7¢ $0 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $9 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records