Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cc9…47f2 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$90 (+18%) realized +$97 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$76
other 42% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 43% +18.8%
≤30d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 43% +18.8%
≤90d 7 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 43% +18.8%
all 7 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 43% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 43% +18.8%
10% -27.4% 43% +7.4%
15% -34.4% 43% -2.9%
20% -40.8% 29% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$20 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $31 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $9 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $20 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 1¢ $51 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $69 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.31 · official $213.31 (match) · 19 history records