Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cc7…4cf9 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$83
crypto 40% −$32
other 4% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 39% -33.7%
≤30d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 39% -33.7%
≤90d 18 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 39% -33.7%
all 18 +2.6% -7.2% 39% 39% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 39% -33.7%
10% -16.1% 39% -40.1%
15% -24.2% 39% -45.9%
20% -31.6% 39% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$33 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +86%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$28 +273%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 26 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $63 +$88 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.69 (match) · 67 history records