Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cc6…cf5d crypto 1209 markets active 3h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,223 (-2%) realized −$1,223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%68W / 1142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$987
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +1.9% -7.8% 58% 55% +14.7%
≤30d 1210 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 5% -8.2%
≤90d 1210 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 5% -8.2%
all 1210 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 5% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 5% -17.0%
15% -26.5% 4% -25.0%
20% -33.8% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$47 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1,223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses68 / 1142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1210 / 1209
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1210 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +178%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $118 +$132 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$79 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $135 +$81 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$54 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$26 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$23 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$100 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $189 +$143 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +176%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$45 -92%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $82 +$22 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $66 −$56 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $38 −$34 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$53 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$9 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $123 +$53 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $126 +$22 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$16 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $239 +$220 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $68 +$42 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $555 +$371 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $425 +$543 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$22 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.87 · official $16.19 (match) · 3500 history records