Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8cc6…85f2 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 721d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$208 (+2%) realized +$202 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 49L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$725
7 days+$725
14 days+$725
30 days+$725
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$157
other 25% +$43
politics 4% −$6
crypto 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +31.4% +18.9% 62% 57% +31.1%
≤30d 21 +31.4% +18.9% 62% 57% +31.1%
≤90d 45 +2.7% -7.1% 47% 42% -7.3%
all 81 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 36% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 36% -8.3%
10% -22.0% 35% -17.1%
15% -29.5% 31% -25.1%
20% -36.4% 23% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$63 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

721d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$202
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage721d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 56¢ $113 $120 +$8 (+7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $165 −$20 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 −$15 -24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 −$14 -22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $54 +$156 +291%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $58 +$52 +90%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $93 +$69 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $187 +$57 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $39 −$6 -15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $235 +$187 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $137 +$271 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $67 +$60 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $126 +$81 +65%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $63 +$47 +74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $88 −$86 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $66 −$64 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$7 +50%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $442 +$278 +63%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $78 −$6 -8%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $168 +$84 +50%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $219 +$145 +66%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $284 −$28 -10%
AC Monza vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $150 −$150 -100%
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $228 −$74 -33%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $171 −$71 -42%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $113 −$81 -72%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $199 −$46 -23%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $181 −$180 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $114 +$56 +49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $53 −$2 -3%
FK Kolos Kovalivka vs. SK Poltava: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $106 −$105 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $90 −$89 -98%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $68 −$37 -54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Apr 24 $62 +$33 +53%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $44 +$53 +121%
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $37 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $56 +$23 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $300 −$296 -98%
CD Palestino vs. CD Concepción: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $55 −$54 -99%
CD Palestino vs. CD Concepción: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $55 −$24 -44%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $61 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Mar 15 $154 +$231 +150%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $9 +$5 +56%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $175 −$175 -100%
Jeju SK FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 3.5 Mar 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $17 48m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 29¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $92 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $65 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $165 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $59 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $48 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $63 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $87 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $0 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $13 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $24 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $12 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $21 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $43 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $54 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $90 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $42 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $39 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $33 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $39 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $23 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $53 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $93 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $35 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.53 · official $155.94 · 263 history records