Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cc6…eba4 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$714 (-12%) realized −$706 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$699
crypto 16% +$3
politics 9% −$13
weather 6% −$11
finance 6% +$4
other 0% −$8
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.0% -12.2% 12% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 18 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 38 -20.0% -27.6% 39% 3% -32.1%
all 63 -8.8% -17.5% 54% 17% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 17% -20.2%
10% -25.4% 10% -27.9%
15% -32.6% 10% -34.8%
20% -39.2% 8% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$61 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$706
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 68
History coverage110d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 21 $302 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $42 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $9 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 17 $8 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $32 −$32 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $17 −$17 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $19 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 25 $19 +$1 +8%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 08 $218 −$218 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $205 +$20 +10%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $6 $0 +9%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Dominika S Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $240 +$10 +4%
Islanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $5 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 05 $162 +$88 +54%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $419 −$419 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $119 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 25 $199 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Wizards Mar 22 $7 $0 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics Mar 22 $257 −$257 -100%
Jets vs. Bruins Mar 21 $14 +$12 +82%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? Mar 21 $109 +$4 +4%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 19 $66 +$14 +20%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $196 +$34 +18%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Mar 18 $87 −$87 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin Mar 18 $122 −$14 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 62¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 63¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 63¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 62¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 49¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 63¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 50¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 50¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 52¢ $14 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 52¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 54¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 54¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 66¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 66¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY No 45¢ $8 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $303 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $203 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.81 · official $115.81 (match) · 299 history records