Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8cc4…e54b crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,016 (-21%) realized −$1,013 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%50W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$1,034
crypto 22% +$23
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 50 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 2% -7.4%
≤90d 50 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 2% -7.4%
all 54 -1.0% -10.4% 93% 2% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -29.0%
10% -19.0% 2% -35.8%
15% -26.8% 2% -42.0%
20% -34.0% 2% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$346 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1,013
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses50 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage132d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 May 18-24? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2AM ET May 26 $20 +$21 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.46 · official $42.46 (match) · 118 history records