Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cc2…7b6a crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$221 (+12%) realized +$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$198
14 days+$198
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 60% 60% +33.5%
≤30d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 60% 60% +33.5%
≤90d 5 +16.8% +5.7% 60% 60% +33.5%
all 67 +0.0% -9.5% 37% 37% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 37% -4.3%
10% -18.2% 36% -13.4%
15% -26.1% 36% -21.8%
20% -33.3% 36% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$25 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage118d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $61 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$58 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$97 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $126 +$144 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Feb 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 25 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4PM ET Feb 25 $256 −$256 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$6 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $0 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $8 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $13 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records