Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cc1…95f3 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$948 (-8%) realized −$948 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$509per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 273d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$10,421
other 1% −$9
sports 1% −$38
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -95.0% -95.5% 0% 0% -95.7%
≤30d 2 -95.0% -95.5% 0% 0% -95.7%
≤90d 2 -95.0% -95.5% 0% 0% -95.7%
all 22 -19.2% -26.9% 55% 45% -93.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 45% -93.9%
10% -33.9% 45% -94.5%
15% -40.3% 27% -95.1%
20% -46.2% 18% -95.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1,053 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$948
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage273d
Avg bet$509
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $5,957 −$5,789 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $5,010 −$4,651 -93%
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? Oct 01 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by September 30? Oct 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 01 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Oct 01 $10 +$5 +49%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 29 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-27? Sep 27 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? Sep 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Sep 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Sep 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-09-24? Sep 25 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September? Sep 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? Sep 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? Sep 25 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? Sep 24 $16 +$6 +35%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 23 $10 +$3 +28%
Mercury vs. Lynx Sep 22 $20 +$2 +8%
Broncos vs. Chargers Sep 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-27? Sep 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $168 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL No $359 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No $33 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $3,986 29h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 34¢ $4,957 24d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $487 30d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 45¢ $480 30d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $512 30d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 45¢ $511 30d
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? SELL No 100¢ $39 263d
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 268d
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 268d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 269d
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September? BUY No $5 269d
Will SE Palmeiras vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 270d
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 270d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-09-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 271d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 271d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 74¢ $10 272d
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? BUY No 51¢ $20 273d
Mercury vs. Lynx BUY Lynx 93¢ $20 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? BUY No 68¢ $10 273d
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? BUY No 67¢ $10 273d
Broncos vs. Chargers BUY Broncos 67¢ $10 273d
Will Juventus win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 273d
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 273d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-09-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 273d
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-09-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 273d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 273d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records