Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8C 0x8cc1…8a6c crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR61%break-even

Win rate65%15W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day53.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +61%

net ROI/market (all)-7.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+2.7%	-7.1%	65%	61%	-11.5%
≤30d	23	+2.7%	-7.1%	65%	61%	-11.5%
≤90d	23	+2.7%	-7.1%	65%	61%	-11.5%
all	23	+2.7%	-7.1%	65%	61%	-11.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover53.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-7.1%	61%	-11.5%
10% ← realistic here	-16.0%	48%	-19.9%
15%	-24.1%	26%	-27.7%
20%	-31.6%	13%	-34.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses15 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage1d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day53.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 25	$11	−$11	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 25	$8	+$4	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$3	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 25	$3	+$2	+63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 25	$3	+$3	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 25	$2	+$3	+121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 25	$16	−$15	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-96%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	Jun 25	$25	−$2	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 25	$51	−$11	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 25	$52	−$20	-37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 25	$52	−$22	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$8	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$7	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$1	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 25	$30	+$5	+15%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$82	+$16	+19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$27	+$10	+38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$21	+$6	+30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$16	+$4	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$11	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$8	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$8	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Up	87¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$6	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$5	2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	SELL Athletics	60¢	$23	2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY Athletics	65¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$15	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$25	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	SELL Up	34¢	$29	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	SELL Down	55¢	$34	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$29	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records