Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8cc1…560b other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,098 (+23%) realized +$1,092 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate73%19W / 7L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$858now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$469
14 days+$877
30 days+$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$159
sports 26% +$873
crypto 2% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +7.4% -2.8% 73% 60% +8.1%
≤30d 26 +44.8% +31.0% 73% 65% +14.9%
≤90d 26 +44.8% +31.0% 73% 65% +14.9%
all 26 +44.8% +31.0% 73% 65% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 65% +14.9%
10% +18.4% 58% +3.9%
15% +7.0% 58% -6.1%
20% -3.5% 46% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$106 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$858
Realized+$1,092
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses19 / 7
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)26 / 32
History coverage19d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $246 +$54 +22%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $122 +$100 +83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +57%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $82 −$80 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $40 +$53 +134%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $117 −$116 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $168 +$104 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $761 +$289 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $242 +$45 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $215 +$85 +40%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 24 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +57%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $146 +$105 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $89 +$53 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 −$302 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 19 $89 −$89 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $470 +$530 +113%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $83 +$54 +65%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $242 +$148 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $11 +$100 +874%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl BUY Yes 82¢ $73 1h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $101 1h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 1h
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $122 1h
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $211 1h
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $240 2h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $83 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $246 36h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 94¢ $188 37h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $122 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 63¢ $3 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $82 39h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $117 40h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $40 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $65 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $761 2d
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $168 3d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $8 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $40 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $242 5d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $8 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $9 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $14 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $1 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $28 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $28 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $7 7d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 58¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $857.95 · official $859.89 (match) · 85 history records