Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8C 0x8cbc…75fc sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$72 (+23%) realized +$44 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$33
other 43% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.2% +3.3% 53% 53% +14.4%
≤30d 17 +14.2% +3.3% 53% 53% +14.4%
≤90d 17 +14.2% +3.3% 53% 53% +14.4%
all 17 +14.2% +3.3% 53% 53% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 53% +14.4%
10% -6.6% 53% +3.5%
15% -15.6% 53% -6.5%
20% -23.9% 53% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +118% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 55¢ 86¢ $50 $78 +$28 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$6 +124%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 +$37 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $5 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $10 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 45h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 45h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.73 · official $77.73 (match) · 36 history records