Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:15:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cbb…1af3 crypto 598 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-2%) realized −$83 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%362W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$33
14 days−$66
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$78
crypto 33% −$116
weather 18% −$71
world 1% +$1
other 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -29.2% -35.9% 43% 11% -16.3%
≤30d 121 -11.7% -20.1% 70% 17% -20.3%
≤90d 390 -17.4% -25.3% 57% 33% -21.2%
all 595 -9.3% -17.9% 61% 36% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 36% -12.1%
10% -25.8% 21% -20.5%
15% -33.0% 12% -28.2%
20% -39.5% 6% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses362 / 233
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)595 / 598
History coverage167d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 595 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29? No 95¢ 96¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29? Jun 28 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $124 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 28? Jun 27 $77 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $29 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $26 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 +$4 +317%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 23 $7 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 22? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? Jun 22 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? Jun 22 $3 $0 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29? SELL No 91¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29? SELL No 92¢ $52 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $100 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 86¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 95¢ $75 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $77 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? SELL No 85¢ $96 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29? SELL No 91¢ $33 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $34 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $33 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 92¢ $4 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? BUY No 91¢ $100 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.52 · official $125.52 (match) · 1817 history records