Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8cbb…8909 crypto 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-1%) realized −$100 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%327W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$252
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 +1.8% -7.9% 96% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 352 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 4% -10.4%
≤90d 352 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 4% -10.4%
all 352 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 4% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$50 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses327 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage10d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 90¢ 84¢ $132 $123 −$9 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $89 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $145 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $89 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $55 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $85 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $88 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $85 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $78 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $133 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $145 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $55 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $54 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $64 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $152 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $43 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $115 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $64 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $89 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $69 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $47 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $16 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.69 · official $72.73 · 793 history records