Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cba…1d68 crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 555d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$422 (-9%) realized −$422 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate66%54W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$73
14 days+$73
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$454
sports 25% +$125
other 22% −$86
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.1% -6.7% 69% 44% +2.0%
≤30d 22 -0.8% -10.3% 64% 45% +1.6%
≤90d 30 -5.3% -14.4% 60% 47% -5.5%
all 82 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 49% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 49% -17.2%
10% -21.6% 38% -25.1%
15% -29.2% 32% -32.4%
20% -36.1% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$48 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

555d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses54 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage555d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $64 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 +$3 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $47 +$4 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $74 +$4 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$32 +81%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 +$36 +67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 31 $21 +$14 +68%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $54 +$47 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $48 −$47 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $30 +$18 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 19 $28 +$27 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +36%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $22 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 25 $153 −$152 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 25 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 25 $149 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 21 $205 −$201 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 21 $203 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 21 $201 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 21 $197 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 21 $189 +$8 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 21 $187 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 21 $176 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 17 $97 −$96 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 17 $67 +$30 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $10 +$4 +35%
Will PSG beat Chelsea? Jul 13 $10 −$10 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Real Madrid (To Advance) Jul 09 $10 −$10 -100%
PSG vs. Real Madrid: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 09 $12 +$8 +66%
Fluminense vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Dortmund: 3+ Goals Scored? Jul 06 $13 +$7 +56%
FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) Jul 05 $40 −$40 -100%
PSG vs. Bayern Munich: 4+ Goals Scored? Jul 05 $128 +$12 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $64 54m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $63 56m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $60 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $51 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $47 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $78 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $74 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $39 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $39 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $40 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $54 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.17 · official $63.17 (match) · 174 history records