Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cb8…b386 other 50 markets active 10h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-14%) realized −$30 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$38
14 days−$17
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$5
other 24% −$34
crypto 10% −$35
culture 6% −$2
world 6% +$34
tech 6% −$16
politics 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -45.9% -51.0% 16% 16% -32.5%
≤30d 34 -29.6% -36.3% 18% 18% -17.7%
≤90d 39 -31.1% -37.7% 18% 15% -20.5%
all 39 -31.1% -37.7% 18% 15% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 15% -20.5%
10% -43.6% 15% -28.1%
15% -49.1% 15% -35.0%
20% -54.1% 13% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)39 / 50
History coverage42d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 47¢ 55¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +249%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $15 −$2 -13%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 08 $6 +$14 +224%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 07 $10 +$7 +72%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 +$34 +677%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Obsession" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ $2 12h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 20h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $13 35h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 75¢ $15 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 53¢ $11 38h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $10 40h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $15 41h
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 44h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 2d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 44¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 26¢ $10 6d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 37¢ $15 6d
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $17 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 71¢ $30 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.58 · official $47.58 (match) · 110 history records