Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8C 0x8cb8…9b75 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+3%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$31
14 days+$23
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$16
other 34% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +50.0% +35.7% 100% 100% +31.2%
≤30d 41 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 46% -7.1%
≤90d 41 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 46% -7.1%
all 41 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 46% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -7.1%
10% -28.8% 44% -16.0%
15% -35.7% 41% -24.1%
20% -42.0% 20% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +70%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $20 +$5 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $12 +$8 +67%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 +$6 +52%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $8 +$3 +36%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 +$3 +57%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 +$3 +46%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +65%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +419%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $11 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $8 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $6 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $6 6d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 8d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 10d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 11d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 12d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 12d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 13d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 13d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 14d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 14d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 24¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.08 · official $24.08 (match) · 77 history records