Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cb7…6019 sports 76 markets active 23h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$175 (+3%) realized +$193 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%22W / 39L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$258
14 days−$258
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$370
other 15% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -84.0% -85.6% 0% 0% -72.4%
≤30d 15 -85.1% -86.5% 0% 0% -73.5%
≤90d 23 -36.8% -42.8% 13% 13% -18.2%
all 61 -11.5% -19.9% 36% 33% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 33% -6.8%
10% -27.6% 30% -15.7%
15% -34.6% 26% -23.9%
20% -41.0% 23% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$44 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)61 / 76
History coverage244d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $7 −$8 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$18 -18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$20 -40%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $25 +$27 +108%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $50 +$62 +124%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $110 −$77 -70%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will JD Gaming win First Stand 2026? Mar 21 $100 −$58 -58%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $50 +$262 +525%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $148 −$23 -16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Oct 26 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 25 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $40 +$62 +154%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner Oct 23 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $75 +$58 +77%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner Oct 22 $304 −$7 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) Oct 22 $200 −$199 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Oct 22 $50 +$15 +30%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic (BO3) Oct 19 $146 +$52 +35%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs FlyQuest (BO1) Oct 18 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1) Oct 18 $373 −$373 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) Oct 18 $428 +$54 +12%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Oct 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-18? Oct 18 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: 100 Thieves vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 18 $85 −$9 -11%
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 18 $84 +$3 +4%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Oct 17 $1,147 −$89 -8%
LoL: PSG Talon vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1) Oct 16 $40 −$38 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1) Oct 16 $70 +$142 +203%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) Oct 16 $180 +$397 +221%
LoL: Top Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO1) Oct 16 $240 +$60 +25%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO1) Oct 16 $260 −$3 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Oct 16 $260 +$55 +21%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO1) Oct 16 $390 +$33 +8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO1) Oct 15 $51 +$29 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium $2 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan $2 46h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over $3 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $81 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the BUY Yes 14¢ $15 23d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $52 52d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 52d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 52d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 59d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 63d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 83d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 83d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 83d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 83d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.64 · official $236.64 (match) · 336 history records