Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8cb4…1057
other · 6 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
+$1,013,450 +46%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,006,749 · open −$222
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$20,173
Realized+$1,006,749
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16,630
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$369,188
Trades / day1252.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,006,749
7 days+$1,006,749
14 days+$1,006,749
30 days+$1,006,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $20,395 $20,173 −$222 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $290,000 $0 −$290,000 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ $420,000 $0 −$420,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $640,638 +$359,362 +56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $420,002 −$420,000 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $292,331 −$290,000 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $447,347 +$908,251 +203%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $394,235 +$449,136 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 60% +$518,497
sports 40% +$488,029
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $436,767 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $16 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $72 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $148 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $0 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $62 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +32.0%
≤30d 5 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +32.0%
≤90d 5 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +32.0%
all 5 +34.6% +21.8% 60% 60% +32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1252.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.8% 60% +32.0%
10% +10.1% 60% +19.4%
15% ← realistic here -0.5% 60% +7.9%
20% -10.3% 60% -2.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,173.42 · official $20,173.42 (match) · 1432 history records