Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cb4…8c32 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$134 (-5%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$229
14 days−$191
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$71
sports 11% −$217
crypto 6% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 50% -20.6%
≤30d 22 +6.7% -3.4% 64% 55% -16.4%
≤90d 22 +6.7% -3.4% 64% 55% -16.4%
all 22 +6.7% -3.4% 64% 55% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 55% -16.4%
10% -12.7% 50% -24.4%
15% -21.1% 41% -31.7%
20% -28.8% 32% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$103 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage27d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $155 +$53 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $159 −$158 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$66 +63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $108 +$33 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$59 +149%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $79 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $141 +$17 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $69 +$72 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $47 +$20 +42%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $148 −$101 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $108 −$65 -60%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $130 −$116 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $241 −$211 -87%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $144 +$97 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $138 +$6 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$37 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$41 +69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $220 −$161 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $146 +$74 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$56 +63%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $155 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $159 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $108 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $99 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $77 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $79 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $141 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $141 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $69 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $69 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $67 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $47 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $47 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $148 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $43 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $108 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $130 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $241 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $241 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $144 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records