Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cb4…48ae crypto 82 markets active 1d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$299 (+3%) realized +$299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 48L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days+$332
14 days+$332
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.8% -13.8% 68% 58% -5.8%
≤30d 82 -25.2% -32.4% 41% 37% -8.4%
≤90d 82 -25.2% -32.4% 41% 37% -8.4%
all 82 -25.2% -32.4% 41% 37% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 37% -8.4%
10% -38.8% 29% -17.2%
15% -44.7% 22% -25.2%
20% -50.2% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -43% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$47 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage22d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $471 +$295 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $348 +$124 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $186 +$162 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1,046 −$1,046 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $67 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $169 +$114 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $216 −$65 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $742 +$218 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $550 +$131 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $570 +$245 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $385 +$185 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $333 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $292 +$43 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $522 −$15 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $164 +$79 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 25 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $766 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $471 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $348 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $186 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $731 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $314 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $20 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $50 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $16 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $128 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $169 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records