Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cb1…2f51 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$136 (-11%) realized −$139 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$273
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$270
sports 36% +$133
world 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -36.1%
≤90d 11 +2.1% -7.7% 82% 18% -25.3%
all 16 +1.9% -7.8% 88% 12% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 12% -24.0%
10% -16.7% 12% -31.3%
15% -24.7% 12% -37.9%
20% -32.1% 12% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$221 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage178d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $367 $370 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $278 −$273 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $135 +$153 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $147 +$148 +101%
Another US bank failure by February 28? May 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? May 18 $12 $0 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $171 −$169 -99%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? Jan 06 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $372 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $278 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $135 19d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 49¢ $147 40d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $171 71d
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition BUY Yes 99¢ $13 94d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $12 100d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 108d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
Another US bank failure by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $7 119d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 134d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $9 140d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? BUY No 97¢ $3 140d
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 BUY Yes 99¢ $12 149d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $12 155d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 165d
Will Apple reach $360 in January? BUY No 99¢ $14 172d
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $17 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.23 · official $370.23 (match) · 32 history records