Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8C 0x8caf…adba crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate82%14W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$941per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$21
other 8% −$11
sports 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -28.2% -35.1% 0% 0% -35.1%
≤30d 3 -18.7% -26.4% 0% 0% -25.0%
≤90d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 25% 0% -19.9%
all 17 -3.1% -12.4% 82% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,227) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses14 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage138d
Avg bet$941
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Jun 27 $36 −$10 -28%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$2 -6%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? May 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $1,232 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $1,230 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $1,229 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $1,228 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $60? Feb 21 $1,227 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on February 19? Feb 20 $1,225 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 17? Feb 18 $1,224 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 15? Feb 16 $1,222 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 14 Feb 15 $1,221 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $7.00? Feb 14 $1,219 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,219 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 10? Feb 11 $1,210 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? Feb 09 $1,208 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b SELL No 54¢ $26 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY No 74¢ $36 45h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $34 16d
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $36 26d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? BUY No 99¢ $33 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,232 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $1,230 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $1,229 125d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,228 126d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $60? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,227 127d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,225 129d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 17? BUY No 100¢ $1,224 131d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,222 132d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 14 BUY No 100¢ $1,221 133d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $7.00? BUY No 100¢ $1,219 134d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,219 136d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $204 138d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 10? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 138d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $1,208 138d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records