Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:22:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8cad…58c0
sports · 19 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$3 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Team Yandex 87¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 82¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 39¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 $0 -3%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $8 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 +$1 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $3 $0 -5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 25 $17 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $3 54m
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $4 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $2 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 82¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $3 4h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 39¢ $2 31h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox 52¢ $3 33h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 56¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 61¢ $2 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 77¢ $8 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $8 2d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 37¢ $2 3d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ $2 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $2 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 43¢ $2 3d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $17 7d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL G2 99¢ $9 7d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 82¢ $7 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 90¢ $8 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 91¢ $8 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 66¢ $3 8d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 27¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 87¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.6% -21.0% 12% 12% -13.5%
≤30d 18 -10.3% -18.8% 22% 22% -8.3%
≤90d 18 -10.3% -18.8% 22% 22% -8.3%
all 18 -10.3% -18.8% 22% 22% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 22% -8.3%
10% -26.6% 17% -17.0%
15% -33.7% 17% -25.1%
20% -40.2% 6% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.60 · official $1.60 (match) · 37 history records