Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cac…6e9c other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-8%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$9
sports 20% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 4 -15.5% -23.5% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 5 -32.4% -38.8% 40% 40% -21.9%
all 5 -32.4% -38.8% 40% 40% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 40% -21.9%
10% -44.7% 40% -29.3%
15% -50.0% 40% -36.2%
20% -54.9% 20% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records