Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ca6…0ae3 other 172 markets active 3h ago coverage 91d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$577 (+7%) realized +$579 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate42%88W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +10.7% +0.2% 20% 12% -38.5%
≤30d 81 -2.8% -12.1% 35% 12% -29.7%
≤90d 205 -10.2% -18.7% 42% 18% -27.8%
all 209 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 18% -27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 18% -27.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 12% -34.5%
15% -27.1% 11% -40.9%
20% -34.2% 8% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$579
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses88 / 121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)209 / 172
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$26 -545%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$27 +1368%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$28 -125%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $24 −$27 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $23 −$89 -381%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Jun 17 $25 −$18 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $0 −$4 -4036%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$45 -120%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $7 −$5 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$25 -227%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 17 $33 −$39 -118%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$57 -133%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$51 -139%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$16 -261%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 17 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$477 +7012275%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$20 -31840%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$24 -153%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $231 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $192 +$139 +73%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $262 −$165 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$55 +720%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $398 +$12 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$29 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $203 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $57 13h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.22 (match) · 3500 history records