Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ca6…3db8 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$4
other 14% −$2
politics 9% +$3
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 1% +$3
culture 1% $0
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 17% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -10.1%
all 53 -5.4% -14.5% 42% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 4% -10.3%
10% -22.6% 4% -18.9%
15% -30.1% 2% -26.7%
20% -37.0% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage456d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $142 −$4 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $26 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $16 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Dec 13 $8 $0 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 13 $0 $0 -83%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 26 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -86%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -70%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? Jun 04 $9 $0 +4%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 02 $4 +$3 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $1 $0 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $2 $0 +9%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $6 +$2 +29%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $38 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 3h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $9 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $32 29h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $42 31h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $11 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $11 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $24 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $41 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $41 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $9 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $28 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $38 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $38 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $41 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records