Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8C 0x8ca4…0473 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$108 (+20%) realized +$144 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$90
sports 13% −$23
crypto 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.6% +1.0% 47% 47% +27.5%
≤30d 19 +11.6% +1.0% 47% 47% +27.5%
≤90d 19 +11.6% +1.0% 47% 47% +27.5%
all 19 +11.6% +1.0% 47% 47% +27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 47% +27.5%
10% -8.7% 47% +15.3%
15% -17.5% 42% +4.2%
20% -25.6% 37% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)19 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$29 +276%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$34 +56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 +$5 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$34 +64%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$13 +252%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 33¢ $21 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 4h
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No $53 14h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $11 17h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 23h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 23h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 30h
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 29¢ $11 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 39h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No $1 39h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 71¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.00 · official $214.79 (match) · 53 history records