Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ca3…9802 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%53W / 3L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$6
crypto 31% +$16
tech 7% +$1
sports 5% +$1
finance 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 94% 0% -9.8%
all 56 +0.4% -9.1% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses53 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage275d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $300 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $222 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $382 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 18 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $420 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of May 18 May 25 $185 $0 +0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 18 2026? May 25 $270 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading May 25 $158 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $610 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $735 −$16 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 17 $435 −$28 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 17 $130 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th May 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $8.00? May 17 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 07 $651 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $180 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $130? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $60? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $140? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $50? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $150? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $120 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 20 above $120? Apr 27 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $500 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $650 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$155 on the final day of trading of the w Apr 08 $99 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 23 above $2.00? Apr 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 23 above $155? Apr 08 $300 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $150? Mar 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over 5,550 on Friday of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 21 $72 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of th Mar 21 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 12? Mar 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 11? Mar 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $270? Mar 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 9 above $155? Mar 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on March 7? Mar 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 08 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Mar 08 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Australia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 20 Feb 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Italy record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Unitree Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G Feb 22 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Nov 15 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 15 $400 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $300 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $222 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $382 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $600 21d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $420 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 26d
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $72.50 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 29d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $158 29d
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.75 Week of May 18 BUY No 100¢ $185 29d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $610 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $143 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $163 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $259 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $317 33d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $8 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $24 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $84 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $68 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $0 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $66 34d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $322 34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $408 34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $109 34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $163 34d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $163 34d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 38d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $200 38d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 11 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $300 38d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $600 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.85 · official $300.85 (match) · 132 history records