Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8C 0x8ca2…1d74 sports 722 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$571 (+5%) realized +$579 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%361W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day99.5pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$159
14 days−$56
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$134
sports 41% +$240
other 3% −$104
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 376 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 43% -12.6%
≤30d 718 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 46% -10.0%
≤90d 718 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 46% -10.0%
all 718 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 46% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 46% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 41% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 32% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 24% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$579
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses361 / 357
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions4
Markets (closed)718 / 722
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day99.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 718 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Down 42¢ 2¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +388%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $172 −$87 -51%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -95%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $210 +$256 +122%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$22 +149%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 −$16 -44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 −$4 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12 +$3 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 −$88 -80%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $61 +$64 +105%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$7 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $126 +$67 +53%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$11 +76%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$59 +238%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$12 -80%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 3¢ $2 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $20 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 76¢ $20 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 18¢ $4 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 34¢ $9 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 25¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $30 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 7¢ $10 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $40 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $40 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 76¢ $12 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 49¢ $72 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.52 · official $8.52 (match) · 3500 history records