Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ca0…47e7 sports 226 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$133 (-16%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%114W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day101.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$150
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 32% -52.2%
≤30d 226 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 39% -25.9%
≤90d 226 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 39% -25.9%
all 226 -5.5% -14.5% 50% 39% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 39% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 34% -33.0%
15% -30.1% 29% -39.4%
20% -37.0% 22% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses114 / 112
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day101.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $7 −$4 -55%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $8 −$2 -29%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $16 −$13 -82%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $18 +$4 +22%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $9 +$3 +31%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Gina Marie Dittmann vs Ipek Oz Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $5 +$5 +88%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $8 +$6 +68%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $2 +$2 +96%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $3 +$3 +108%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $11 −$4 -32%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $6 +$8 +136%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $6 −$4 -61%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Alena Kovackova Jun 11 $3 +$2 +78%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $2 +$3 +132%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Aliesia Reva Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $5 −$3 -53%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2 +$2 +101%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -64%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +51%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 +$9 +867%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $2 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 4d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran BUY Guido Justo 93¢ $4 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 31¢ $2 4d
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Keegan Smith 75¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 45¢ $2 4d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 56¢ $2 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 55¢ $1 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 56¢ $1 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 69¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 66¢ $4 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 49¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 59¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 49¢ $5 5d
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Petr Brunclik 77¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 58¢ $4 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 86¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 83¢ $5 5d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 88¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY South Africa 46¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 10¢ $1 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 68¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 61¢ $3 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 57¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 68¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 75¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 75¢ $3 5d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 75¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 811 history records