Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8C 0x8ca0…5903 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$24 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$12
politics 14% −$17
economics 6% −$2
sports 5% +$6
world 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
finance 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.3% +8.9% 20% 20% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +5.6% -4.5% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -1.8% -11.2% 12% 8% -9.6%
all 104 -1.8% -11.2% 12% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 8% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 8% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 8% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage89d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $168 $166 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $377 −$12 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $341 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $120 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $560 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $297 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $296 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $299 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $291 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $285 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $283 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $287 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 28 $610 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $304 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $287 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $293 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $862 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $291 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $583 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 3h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 22h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $10 31h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $168 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 15d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $54 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.23 · official $166.23 (match) · 348 history records