Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8C 0x8c9b…2958 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$21 (+6%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$15
14 days+$37
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$24
world 32% −$2
sports 22% +$29
crypto 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +59.4% +44.3% 55% 50% +19.9%
≤30d 46 +59.6% +44.4% 57% 50% +16.0%
≤90d 46 +59.6% +44.4% 57% 50% +16.0%
all 61 +36.1% +23.1% 51% 41% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.1% 41% -3.7%
10% +11.3% 34% -12.9%
15% +0.6% 34% -21.3%
20% -9.3% 31% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +105% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)61 / 71
History coverage150d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 49¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 +$19 +1857%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +44%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Singapore win on 2026-06-05? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +10%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 +$6 +57%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $1 −$1 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +14%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $20 +$1 +6%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -35%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Feb 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $1 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 36h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 46h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $0 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 32¢ $3 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $1 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 6d
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.30 · official $43.30 (match) · 120 history records