Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8C 0x8c9b…7fa3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$669 (+11%) realized +$669 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%13W / 11L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$247per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-14.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-5.1%	-14.1%	54%	54%	-1.3%
≤30d	24	-5.1%	-14.1%	54%	54%	-1.3%
≤90d	24	-5.1%	-14.1%	54%	54%	-1.3%
all	24	-5.1%	-14.1%	54%	54%	-1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.1%	54%	-1.3%
10%	-22.3%	54%	-10.8%
15%	-29.8%	50%	-19.4%
20%	-36.7%	33%	-27.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late -5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$183 vs −$168 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$669

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses13 / 11

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 24

History coverage6d

Avg bet$247

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$153	+$131	+86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$163	−$154	-94%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 25	$51	−$5	-9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1	$0	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$304	+$126	+41%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$102	+$142	+138%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$31	−$31	-100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$62	−$62	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$167	+$79	+47%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$203	+$107	+53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$401	−$205	-51%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$355	+$167	+47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$406	−$406	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$507	−$507	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$609	+$307	+50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$132	+$59	+45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$305	+$212	+69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$408	−$408	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$610	+$407	+67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$587	+$360	+61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$299	+$288	+96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	3¢	$10	59m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	SELL Yes	39¢	$46	1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$102	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	53¢	$102	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$1	14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$202	14h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	41¢	$102	14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$102	19h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	24h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$31	25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	13¢	$52	25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	67¢	$167	39h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$311	46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$203	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	56¢	$196	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	44¢	$196	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	44¢	$205	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$355	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$406	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$507	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$132	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$508	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$305	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records